The first hints came days earlier when derivatives markets showed aggressive hedging: perpetual swap funding rates turned negative, options volatility exploded, and open interest evaporated. Then, on a drizzly Thursday in London, Bitcoin slipped under the much-watched threshold. For professional and retail traders alike, it felt momentous.
Harry Mills, a veteran portfolio manager, noticed the tape turn “decisively risk-off” as U.S. stocks sagged and the normally volatile Nasdaq looked dull. “It was like a collective exhale, but it ended up being a gasp. The AI bubble was taking a hit, tech stocks were wobbling, and suddenly Bitcoin became just another risk asset to dump,” Mills recounts.
During the day, Bitcoin hit a six-month low, briefly trading in the mid-$98,000s before bouncing. By late afternoon in New York, more than $867 million had fled Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in just 48 hours. Analyst Rachel Kim told Youhodler, “It’s not just individual investors. Institutions are yanking exposure, worried that the liquidity crunch could be deeper than expected.”
In every big market cycle, round numbers take on an outsized role in investor psychology. For Bitcoin, $100,000 isn’t just a price it’s a milestone reached after years of speculation, failed rallies, and dismissed predictions. Days below this line breed anxiety and shifts in market behaviour. “It’s like crossing back through a doorway you thought you’d left forever,” says Mills. The 50-week moving average was also at play; Bitcoin flirted with it, raising fears among technical traders that a bear phase was here to stay.
Market historian Anna Zhou compared this correction to previous cycles: “The timing symmetry with the last cycles is eerie. The previous bull runs lasted around 1,060 days; this one is at a similar length. When Bitcoin starts losing momentum, cycles tend to close out, and investors begin reallocating risk.”
Some measure cycles by the monthly RSI dipping under 50 or the Bitcoin/Gold ratio losing steam both happened this month. Yet, Zhou cautions, “Capitulation candles at cycle’s end are usually followed by periods of rapid accumulation. The big question is, will this be the bottom, or the beginning of something deeper?”
Beyond the charts and ratios, the real-world effects were immediate. Exchanges saw heavier redemption requests, and ETF managers scrambled to rebalance portfolios. At OKX, chief market officer Haider Rafique said, “Retail investors are sticking around, still trading, but it’s the institutional money that’s dropping fastest right now.” OTC desks noted block trades from long-dormant vaults.
Retail sentiment, however, remains surprisingly steady. Telegram trading groups buzz with charts and emotional post-mortems. “It was a wild ride, but I’m looking for new accumulation zones below,” posted @BitTrader2022 to a 45,000-strong trading collective.
Why did Bitcoin fall? This time, it wasn’t just crypto. The correction rode on the back of global nervousness AI-driven tech stocks losing their shine, concerns over U.S. Federal Reserve rate policies, and growing evidence that risk assets were universally being marked down. With U.S. inflation mixed and policymakers signaling crosscurrents, asset managers sought safety.
Some of the harshest drops happened over “crypto Black Friday,” a nickname given to last October’s market rout. This underscored just how tied crypto now is to global financial flows and the broader mood of Wall Street.
For traders who made it through previous bear cycles, surviving the volatility is about holding to a plan. Dana Tsui, a swing trader, shifted some funds from altcoins and high-leverage positions into stablecoins, seeing the early signs of heavy selling. “In this market, the only thing that matters is your exit strategy. Everyone talks about buy-and-hold, but selling at the right moment can mean the difference between survival and regret.”
One group less rattled are the long-term holders those who accumulated “coin” during the early days. On-chain data revealed wallets that hadn’t moved for 18 months were suddenly making transactions, but most sold only a small fraction, preferring to wait for signals of market exhaustion before moving the rest.
The coming weeks may determine whether this correction means the official end of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle or is simply a shakeout before the next wave upward. Bollinger Bands, moving averages, and macro cycle models all suggest heightened volatility is here to stay.
For now, the question traders must answer is clear: Is Bitcoin gearing up for a deeper correction, or is this the final clean-out before a push to new all-time highs? History teaches that every time crypto buries its “last” bull market, it rises again. The only certainty is change, and in November 2025, change is all the market has to offer.
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