What is the Non-Farm Payrolls Report?

Every month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases one of the most watched economic reports in the world: the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data. This report shows how many jobs were added or lost in the U.S. economy, excluding farm workers, household employees, non-profit workers, and government staff.

Why these exclusions? Farm employment swings wildly with the seasons, which would make it harder to see the real trend in the job market.

The NFP covers about 80% of American workers, making it a solid gauge of how the economy’s actually doing. And since the U.S. is the world’s largest economy, these numbers send ripples across global markets.

Why Traders Care About NFP

Think of the NFP as the economy’s monthly health check. It tells you whether companies are hiring (good sign) or cutting jobs (warning sign), and more importantly, it gives major clues about what the Federal Reserve might do next.

The Fed Connection

Here’s the thing: the Federal Reserve has two main jobs—keep people employed and keep prices stable. They watch NFP numbers like a hawk when deciding whether to mess with interest rates.

The logic goes like this:

• Lots of jobs added? The economy might be overheating. The Fed could raise rates to cool things down.
• Weak job growth or job losses? The economy might need help. Rate cuts could be coming.
• Steady, moderate growth? Everything’s fine. No changes needed.

Why This Matters to Your Portfolio

Interest rates affect everything—currency values, stock prices, bond yields, you name it. So when NFP drops, here’s what typically happens:

• Forex markets go wild, especially anything paired with the U.S. dollar
• Stock markets react based on what the numbers mean for corporate profits
• Bond markets reprice based on where rates might go
• Commodities respond to dollar strength and growth expectations

2026 NFP Release Calendar

Mark these dates in your calendar. The report comes out at 8:30 AM ET (1:30 PM GMT) on the first Friday of the month:

Month	Release Date	Data Period	Time (ET)	Time (GMT)
January	Friday, Jan 9	December 2025	8:30 AM	1:30 PM
February	Friday, Feb 6	January 2026	8:30 AM	1:30 PM
March	Friday, Mar 6	February 2026	8:30 AM	1:30 PM
April	Friday, Apr 3	March 2026	8:30 AM	1:30 PM
May	Friday, May 8	April 2026	8:30 AM	1:30 PM
June	Friday, Jun 5	May 2026	8:30 AM	1:30 PM
July	Thursday, Jul 2*	June 2026	8:30 AM	1:30 PM
August	Friday, Aug 7	July 2026	8:30 AM	1:30 PM
September	Friday, Sep 4	August 2026	8:30 AM	1:30 PM
October	Friday, Oct 2	September 2026	8:30 AM	1:30 PM
November	Friday, Nov 6	October 2026	8:30 AM	1:30 PM
December	Friday, Dec 4	November 2026	8:30 AM	1:30 PM

*July’s on Thursday because of the July 4th holiday.

What’s Actually in the Report

Sure, everyone focuses on the headline number—how many jobs were added. But smart traders dig deeper:

1. The Headline Number
Net jobs added or lost. In a healthy economy, you’re looking at somewhere between 150,000 to 200,000 new jobs monthly.

2. Unemployment Rate
What percentage of people who want work can’t find it. This adds context to the headline number.

3. Labor Force Participation
Are people even looking for work? If lots of people drop out of the job search, the unemployment rate can look good even when it’s not.

4. Average Hourly Earnings
Are wages going up? This is huge for inflation and what the Fed might do. Nobody cares more about wage growth than the Fed.

5. Which Sectors Are Hiring
Manufacturing up but retail down? These details tell you where the economy’s strong and where it’s struggling.

6. Revisions to Previous Months
The government often changes last month’s numbers. Big revisions can move markets just as much as the new data.

7. Average Hours Worked
Companies often cut hours before they cut jobs. This can be an early warning sign.

How Different Markets React

Forex (Currency Trading)

The biggest movers are usually:

• USD/JPY (often the most dramatic)
• EUR/USD (the world’s most traded pair)
• GBP/USD (known as “Cable”)
• AUD/USD and NZD/USD (these “risk” currencies are sensitive to U.S. economic health)

Basic playbook:

• Better than expected jobs? Dollar usually rallies (rate hikes more likely)
• Worse than expected? Dollar typically weakens (rate cuts more likely)
• Right on target? Quick spike in volatility, then back to whatever trend was already in place

Stock Markets

Here’s where it gets tricky. Strong jobs can mean two different things:

• Good news: Economy’s healthy, companies will make more money
• Bad news: Fed might raise rates, which hurts stock valuations

Weak jobs? Same thing in reverse:

• Good news: Fed might cut rates (stocks like that)
• Bad news: We might be heading into a recession

Context is everything. Where we are in the economic cycle matters a lot.

Gold and Commodities

Gold’s pretty straightforward: strong dollar and higher rate expectations usually push it down. It’s the anti-dollar trade.

Oil responds more to what the jobs data says about economic demand. More jobs generally means more driving, more flying, more oil consumption.

Bonds

Treasury yields move fast on NFP:

• Strong jobs → yields rise (rate hikes expected)
• Weak jobs → yields fall (rate cuts expected)

Watch the 10-year Treasury yield especially—it’s the benchmark everyone references.

Trading Strategies

1. Pre-positioning
Some traders place bets before the number drops based on what economists are predicting. High risk, high reward (or high loss).

2. Trading the Initial Spike
Trying to catch the immediate move. You need fast execution and nerves of steel. Often results in bad fills due to slippage.

3. Fading the Reaction
Wait for the initial panic to settle, then bet on a reversal. Based on the idea that markets often overreact.

4. Breakout Trading
Set orders above and below key price levels. Let the market tell you which direction it wants to go.

5. Wait and See
Give it 30-60 minutes for the dust to settle, then trade with more clarity. Better risk-reward, less excitement.

6. Sit It Out
Honestly? Many pros just skip NFP day entirely. The chaos isn’t worth it.

Risk Management (Read This Part Twice)

NFP day isn’t normal. Here’s what you need to do:

• Widen your stops – Normal stop losses will get blown through
• Cut your position size – Use way less leverage than usual
• Expect bad fills – Your orders won’t execute where you want them to
• Watch the spreads – They’ll widen dramatically. Your costs go up.
• Consider guaranteed stops – If your broker offers them (they’ll charge a premium)
• Don’t overtrade – Resist the urge to jump into multiple positions
• Check liquidity – Some markets might dry up temporarily

What Usually Happens

Big Beat (Much Better Than Expected)

• Dollar surges
• Stocks might dip initially (rate fears) but can recover if it’s growth-driven
• Gold drops
• Bond yields jump

Big Miss (Much Worse Than Expected)

• Dollar tanks
• Stocks either rally (dovish Fed expected) or crash (recession fears)
• Gold rallies
• Bond yields plunge

Right on Target

• Brief volatility spike, then markets resume whatever they were doing before
• Much less exciting

Mixed Signals

• Example: Good headline but weak wage growth, or vice versa
• Markets get confused and whipsaw
• Best to wait for clarity

Mistakes to Avoid

• Using too much leverage (this kills accounts on NFP day)
• Trading without stops (hoping for the best)
• Jumping on the first tick (often a false move)
• Ignoring everything except the headline number
• Trying to immediately recover losses (revenge trading)
• Forgetting that revisions matter
• Not considering where we are in the economic cycle

Common Questions

What time does it drop?
8:30 AM Eastern Time (1:30 PM GMT), usually first Friday of the month.

Why exclude farm workers?
Seasonal hiring would mess up the trend. Harvest time, planting time—too much noise.

What’s a “good” number?
Depends on context, but generally 150,000-250,000 jobs is healthy. Outside that range, you need to ask why.

Can NFP be negative?
Yep. Negative means we lost more jobs than we created. That’s recession territory.

How often do economists get it wrong?
All the time. Forecasts regularly miss by 50,000-100,000 jobs or more.

What’s the difference between NFP and ADP?
ADP comes out two days before NFP and only covers private sector jobs. NFP is the official government report with broader coverage.

Should I trade NFP as a beginner?
Probably not. The volatility can wipe out accounts quickly. Watch a few before you even think about trading them.

The Bottom Line

NFP is one of the biggest market movers each month. It offers real opportunities, but the volatility demands respect. You need preparation, discipline, and solid risk management.

Whether you trade it or just watch from the sidelines, understanding NFP makes you a better trader. The key insight? Successful NFP trading isn’t about predicting the number—it’s about managing your reaction to it.

---

Quick Disclaimer: Trading is risky. You can lose money, sometimes a lot of it. This guide is educational only, not financial advice. Do your own research, know your risk tolerance, and never trade money you can’t afford to lose.